Month: December 2025

Reflections on AI-enabled transformation in sustainable mobility and outlook what to focus on in 2026

by Dr Joachim G. Taiber (Advanced Research Fellow at the Centre for Sectoral Economic Performance at Imperial College London)

The need for  physical mobility remains, although we can replace physical trips with digital communication solutions. But humans have the desire for in-person interaction and “to see things in person,” which triggers both professional and personal travel. The traumatic experience of COVID taught us that we can still function as a society even when we are physically largely immobilized, but it comes at a high social cost. We need energy to enable physical transportation. The need to replace fossil fuels with renewable sources to create energy and limit or even reverse the negative consequences on the environment has become a major driver in reducing carbon emissions. This development led to regulatory frameworks for how to become a carbon-free society, which support the development of electrified powertrains and battery-based energy storage technologies, which are now mass-produced and contribute to a gradual decarbonization of the global vehicle fleet. Although the speed of this transformation is different in different parts of the world, the general trend towards sustainable mobility is, in the meantime, irreversible at a global scale. The substantial progress in AI technologies based on advanced chip design and a non-linear increase in computing power provides new capabilities both on the product side and the infrastructure side of transportation, which leads to more automation in vehicle fleet operation, design, and manufacturing processes, as well as in the delivery of supply-chain-based and customer-centric services. The human operation of mobility devices – whether on ground, in the air, or on water always comes with a social cost of human error. The social acceptance of AI-operated vehicles is linked to a safety level that needs to be orders of magnitude better compared to human-operated vehicles. This is a fundamental technical challenge that requires enormous investments in computing, networking, and sensing capabilities, both on the mobility device as well as on the supporting infrastructure. Achieving AI-based fully automated fleet operation demands substantial amounts of energy for computing to train the vehicle fleet, which needs to be provided by suitable data center capabilities based on data that is harvested through sensors, considering local conditions as well as national security regulations in the different markets. Each vehicle in the fleet needs to be equipped with sufficient local inference capabilities to master the automated transportation tasks.Preparing the transportation industry to transform towards a fully automated and fully decarbonized mobility ecosystem is a task that requires the collaboration of multiple generations of leaders and experts, bundling their collective knowledge.

What needs to be addressed in 2026, in my opinion, is the following:

  • We need to focus on scaling up fully automated private and commercial decarbonized vehicle fleet deployment in all global markets.
  • We need to develop new business models around financing and operating fully automated vehicle fleets, replacing gradually the use of human-operated personally owned vehicles, which are underutilized, while increasing the affordability of sustainable mobility for the masses.
  • We need to develop more flexible and adaptive regulatory frameworks globally, supporting sustainable and automated mobility, which consider and monitor the economic and social costs of adoption.

CSEP Cross-Institutional Partnerships: Brunel University of London

Who are the key people or teams involved from each side?

The collaboration brings together expertise from both the Centre for Sectoral Economic Performance (CSEP) at Imperial College London and the Brunel Interdisciplinary Power Systems (BIPS) Research Centre at Brunel University London.

From Brunel’s side, the work is led by Dr Marko Aunedi, Senior Lecturer and Principal Investigator on the project, and Research Fellow Dr Daniil Hulak. Marko’s expertise in modelling and optimisation of low-carbon energy systems and Daniil’s background in power-system economics are combined to investigate the system integration of the tidal stream resources in the context of the GB electricity system.

What is the main research topic or project focus under this collaboration?

The collaboration focuses on advancing analytical and optimisation techniques to understand the potential role of tidal stream generation within the future GB power system. One significant part of the research has been dedicated to tidal resource assessment based on multiple geospatial and oceanographic datasets, including GEBCO bathymetry and TPXO tidal data. Our work combines the assessment of tidal energy resources combined with the seabed and technical constraints, access conditions, and other financial considerations. In parallel, we have developed an open-source power system optimisation model to investigate the operational and economic implications of integrating tidal energy across multiple future scenarios. This includes a range of sensitivity analyses around the availability of renewable energy sources, deployment of flexibility options, and specific regional conditions.

How does this research align with CSEP’s mission?

This collaboration directly supports CSEP’s mission to help improve the competitiveness of the UK economy and drive sustainable economic growth by advancing understanding of an emerging technology sector with potential for global impact. Tidal energy represents a field where the UK has strong natural resources, established research capabilities and the possibility to build international leadership. Our ambition is to provide quantitative evidence on system integration benefits of tidal energy resources that could support their efficient integration into the zero-carbon generation mix.

How does this project contribute to sustainability, innovation or social good?

Although tidal power generation remains less mature than wind and solar technologies with a significantly lower installed capacity, it offers some comparative advantages to variable renewable technologies because of fully predictable generation profiles, which could help to improve the resilience of the future GB power system and the sensitivity to extreme weather events. Our research aims to address a core challenge: how to integrate tidal stream resources effectively and cost-efficiently into a low-carbon energy system dominated by variable renewable energy sources. By building the analysis on detailed real-life datasets, the project provides an evidence-based assessment of locations and circumstances where tidal energy could deliver the greatest system-level benefits. Early findings indicate that certain UK coastal zones may offer particularly favourable combinations of tidal resource quality, system value and connection feasibility, suggesting that targeted deployment in these areas could support both decarbonisation and system stability. These results have the potential to inform future policy discussions, guide investment decisions and support the UK’s broader Net Zero ambitions by informing the energy policy and providing efficient investment signals.

What are the expected outcomes or impacts of this collaboration?

A key outcome of the collaboration is the generation and exchange of knowledge in the area of tidal energy integration across academic institutions, industry partners and policymakers. This includes ongoing discussions with stakeholders such as the Marine Energy Council, Guernsey Electricity and other sector representatives. The research outcomes are also being prepared for presenting in peer-reviewed publications to disseminate the project findings among the academic and research communities.

Meet the CSEP Team Series: Prof Rafael Palacios

What combination of skills and experiences best defines your journey as an aeronautical engineer?

I’m an aeronautical engineer — this means I am 10% electrical engineer, 30% mechanical engineer, 10% material scientist, 20% computer scientist, and 10% chemical engineer. And this is definitely one of those cases in which the whole is more than the sum of the parts.  I worked as engineer at Airbus for a few years before I started my doctoral research, and I joined Imperial a couple of years after.

What area of study is capturing your attention right now?

The problem that most interests me right now is understanding the impact that a warming atmosphere will have on future aircraft. This is the reverse of what we normally focus on (how aircraft emissions affect the climate, which of course is much more important!) and it is one that may have substantial practical implications as we develop more efficient aircraft. Very high efficiency is strongly linked to smooth operating conditions, and a very turbulent atmosphere will not help at all. The solutions I’m looking into need of advanced flight controls, which means my research now spans all the way from meteorology to embedded systems. I am very lucky to have many collaborators that are true experts on those areas.

What opportunities has CSEP provided for broadening your perspective in your field?

One of my current roles is to act as the director of the Brahmal Institute for Sustainable Aviation. This has been a fantastic opportunity to help shaping the research landscape at Imperial and beyond, and we have around 15 researchers now working on some of the hardest problems to achieve net-zero aviation. The institute challenged me to step outside the narrow confines of my research and explore the broader landscape of the aviation sector. The CSEP brought an opportunity to systematise that effort and look at the portfolio of technologies that have proposed for net-zero aviation from the point of view of their economic value to the UK, the policy bottlenecks that may impede their development, and the research that is still needed to make some of them work at scale.

Do you have a favourite paper, study, book or project that has influenced your career path so far?

The very first visit I made when I started at Imperial was to the site in Farnborough where Airbus was developing a solar-powered aircraft. This is an incredibly difficult problem: the wings need to be very large because the area needed by the solar panels, but there is still very little power coming from them to power the engines, so the aircraft has to be both extremely light and very aerodynamically efficient. The result is off the scales compared to any other aircraft! I tried to address some of those trade-offs with my very first research projects, which let me to develop new design and analysis strategies, which eventually shaped the rest of my academic career.

Summary of UK budget tax changes that affect knowledge-based entrepreneurial companies

by Daniel Green (Principal Fellow Entrepreneurship, Department of Bioengineering)

Last week’s UK budget had plenty that will (mostly) strengthen research-driven industries in the UK. One measure, a targeted cut in taxes on share trading, was foreshadowed in the CSEP report on the UK’s Heathtech industry. Other measures include more tax breaks for investing in later-stage private companies and, on the downside, a reduction in the tax benefits of investing through Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs).

As always with a UK budget, the small print in is what counts. Here’s a summary of tax-related measures that will affect all knowledge-based sectors where a thriving entrepreneurial environment is part the UK’s growth story. We briefly discuss non-tax measures after this section.

Four measures support that growth story, and two do not. First, the good news.

  1. The UK will be more attractive to early-stage investors through making UK IPOs more attractive. CSEP Healthtech report proposed the elimination of stamp duty tax from trading in shares post-IPO. The Budget announced this but limited to trading for three years post-IPO. This helps even start-up companies because since investors always have exit risks in mind.
  2. Mid-stage private medtech, biotech and deep tech companies will be able to raise private investments more easily from UK tax-paying investors. Knowledge-intensive companies will be able to raise money under EIS and from VCTs to a max of £40m (currently £20m). This will especially help companies in life sciences and deeptech where many years of product development are needed before revenues overtake costs. The annual max rise from £10-£20m.
  3. Attracting skilled employees into high-risk businesses will become easier (1). Entrepreneurial companies use shares and options to incentivise teams, and now companies up to 500 employees (250 previously) will be able do this under a favourable tax regime.
  4. Attracting skilled employees into high-risk businesses will become easier (2). These tax breaks will remain if shares are sold via a new a new form of share trading called PISCES – an embryonic alternative to selling shares to sales on a recognised stock exchange.

And two measures that do not support the growth story (but may increase government tax revenues).

  1. Founders and potentially investors will pay more tax on some exits. Business Asset disposal relief (formerly Entrepreneurs’ Relief) will go up from 14% to 18%.
  2. Some investors will pay more tax when they invest. Income tax relief for VCTs will fall from 30% to 20%.

On a final positive note, in addition to these tax-related changes highlighted above, the government announced measures to increase and speed up grant funding (through UKRI) and equity investment (through the British Business Bank).

References:

CSEP Cross-Institutional Partnerships: The Centre for Emerging Technology and Security (CETaS)

What is the primary research theme guiding this collaboration?

This project analyses the current UK AI assurance marketplace specifically for the defence and national security (D&S) sector. A thriving AI assurance sector has the potential to enable AI adoption and become a key driver of economic growth in the UK. We were keen to describe the current state of AI assurance within D&S organisations, highlighting strengths, challenges and possible mitigations to enable safe and effective AI adoption. Ultimately, the paper provides lessons from the D&S sector to assist the growth of a robust AI assurance marketplace across the broader UK economy.

Can you outline the ways this project supports CSEP’s goals?

This research is aligned with CSEP’s mission of improving UK competitiveness as it will be essential in the coming years to focus on the role of AI to boost economic growth. By partnering with CETaS and its expertise on AI and Defence and National Security (D&NS) topics, this project will demonstrate both centres’ commitments to advancing robust economic growth and AI safety as mutually reinforcing goals. We also anticipate synergies with other CSEP projects, such as UK’s cybersecurity or future collaboration on a sector plan for growing assurance in D&S for national benefit.

 How might the research influence policy, industry, or society?

The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) has identified growing the UK’s third-party AI assurance sector as a key priority within the AI Opportunities Action Plan. A thriving assurance marketplace would also help deliver the UK Government’s mission to kickstart economic growth through the adoption of AI technology, as stated in the UK’s Prosperity Mission. This research helps to support the UK government’s AI ambition by identifying: (i) key drivers of demand and approaches to AI assurance in this sector, (ii) supply and demand limitations, and (iii) recommendations to grow a thriving and robust AI assurance marketplace.

Are there any early findings or achievements that stand out?

We found it interesting that there is strong recognition across defence and security (D&S) for AI assurance, yet the level of maturity across organisations varies widely. We identified significant pockets of excellence where good practice is well established, but there remains an open question about how much to focus on in-house or external assurance moving forward. D&S also provides critical lessons for other UK sectors, such as articulating sector specific requirements, developing initiatives to upskill key stakeholders, and creating certification schemes for AI assurance providers.