{"id":4178,"date":"2019-01-02T11:15:22","date_gmt":"2019-01-02T11:15:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/?p=4178"},"modified":"2019-01-02T11:15:22","modified_gmt":"2019-01-02T11:15:22","slug":"statistical-resolutions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/","title":{"rendered":"Statistical resolutions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Can you believe the time for New Year\u2019s resolutions has come again? Maybe this year\u00a0you can add\u00a0to the traditional \u201cI\u2019ll eat healthily\u201d, \u201cI\u2019ll stop smoking\u201d and \u201cI\u2019ll hit the gym regularly\u201d\u00a0a new one:\u00a0<strong>\u201cI\u2019ll look at\u00a0statistics\u00a0carefully\u201d<\/strong>.\u00a0You can start with these five simple tips.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Reported averages might be meaningless\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_871\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-871\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-medium wp-image-871 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/paularowinska.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/01\/crowd-of-people-1488213_1920.jpg?w=300\" alt=\"crowd-of-people-1488213_1920\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-871\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">So who is average?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>An arithmetic mean (sum of all values divided by the number of values), often reported as the\u00a0<i>average<\/i>, in fact doesn\u2019t say much about the average value.\u00a0<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Imagine you\u2019re describing humans to\u00a0extraterrestrial\u00a0visitors. How many legs does an average person have?\u00a0Slightly less than two. It\u2019s because unfortunately some people have lost one or two legs, while nobody has more than two.\u00a0Probably the information that a vast majority of people walk on two legs would be more useful for our alien friend.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>What even is an average person?\u00a0 In 2017 British women had\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/health-42110846\">on average 1.9 children<\/a>. How many women with 1.9 do you know personally? Exactly. Average people don\u2019t exist.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Huge numbers often just sound alarming\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_872\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-872\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-872\" src=\"https:\/\/paularowinska.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/01\/money-glut-432688_1920.jpg?w=300\" alt=\"money-glut-432688_1920\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-872\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Plenty of money? It depends what we need it for.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In 2018\/19 the health spending in England should reach about\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kingsfund.org.uk\/sites\/default\/files\/field\/field_publication_file\/Autumn_Statement_Kings_Fund_Nov_2016_3.pdf#page=7\">\u00a3122 billion<\/a>. Too much, isn\u2019t it! However, if we divide this enormous number by the population of about\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk\/british-population\/national-and-regional-populations\/population-of-england-and-wales\/latest\">56 million<\/a>, it turns out that the cost per person equals approximately \u00a32200; a much more manageable value.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Also, remember that journalists love to report extremes. Headlines such as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/05\/10\/bitcoin-could-soar-as-high-as-64000-next-year-fundstrat-predicts.html\">\u201cBitcoin could soar as high as $64,000 next year\u201d<\/a>\u00a0stimulate imagination, but\u00a0the phrase\u00a0<i>could [\u2026] as high as<\/i>\u00a0is the key.\u00a0Could, but probably won\u2019t; as we read further,\u00a0$64,000\u00a0is just the end of\u00a0the predicted range, while the most likely value of\u00a0$36,000\u00a0is\u00a0almost twice smaller.\u00a0<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Effects in the data can\u00a0result from regression to the mean\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Thanks to the regression to the mean our world doesn\u2019t resemble\u00a0<i>Gulliver&#8217;s Travels Among the Lilliputians and the Giants.\u00a0<\/i>Children of very tall people tend to be shorter than their parents, while short parents usually can expect their child to outgrow them. Extremes are called that way for a reason: usually\u00a0the\u00a0next time\u00a0we take the\u00a0measurement\u00a0it\u00a0gets\u00a0closer to the average.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Every weekend in the winter season millions of Poles follow closely men\u2019s ski jumping tournaments. The score of each competitor is influenced by his two jumps. Usually after the first excellent jump the second one is mediocre, and vice versa. We like to explain it with\u00a0psychology, claiming that the initial success put the poor guy under too much\u00a0pressure,\u00a0or the\u00a0failure\u00a0relaxed him. However, the explanation is much more boring: an extraordinary jump is an extreme event followed by more average performance.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Statistical significance doesn\u2019t imply\u00a0real-life significance\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Scientific articles abound in\u00a0<i>statistically significant<\/i>\u00a0results. In everyday language\u00a0<i>significant<\/i>\u00a0equals\u00a0<i>important<\/i>. However, not in the science lingo.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Statistical significance informs us that the studied effect probably didn\u2019t occur by chance and it\u2019s worth researching it further. For example, if we compare a new\u00a0treatment\u00a0for lung cancer with the standard one and obtain statistically significant results, it\u2019s likely that the new\u00a0therapy\u00a0really increases the survival rates. However, it doesn\u2019t tell us anything about the effect size. The potential improvements might be outweighed by costs and risks of introducing a new therapy.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Relative\u00a0and absolute changes: we need to know both\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_870\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-870\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-medium wp-image-870 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/paularowinska.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/01\/bacon-1238243_1920.jpg?w=300\" alt=\"bacon-1238243_1920\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-870\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bacon isn&#8217;t great neither for your health nor for the planet, but it probably won&#8217;t give you bowel cancer.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Have you also heard that eating\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cancer.org\/latest-news\/hot-dogs-hamburgers-bacon.html\">processed meat increases the risk of bowel cancer by 18%<\/a>? Sounds scary! However, the right question to ask is: what is the base value? It turns out that about one in twenty people will develop bowel cancer at some point in their lives, which makes the lifetime risk 5%. If someone eats 50g of processed meat every day, this risk increases to 6%. Sounds a bit less scary than 18% increase, doesn\u2019t it?\u00a0Of course,\u00a0I strongly encourage you to reduce the meat\u00a0consumption, but bowel cancer risk isn\u2019t the reason.<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>By following these simple\u00a0<\/b><b>tips,<\/b><b>\u00a0you can avoid falling for fake news and\u00a0<\/b><b>pseudoscientific<\/b><b>\u00a0claims. Let\u2019s make 2019 the year of good statistics! Happy New Year! \ud83d\ude42\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<pre>First appeared: https:\/\/paularowinska.wordpress.com\/2019\/01\/01\/statistical-resolutions\/<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Can you believe the time for New Year\u2019s resolutions has come again? Maybe this year\u00a0you can add\u00a0to the traditional \u201cI\u2019ll eat healthily\u201d, \u201cI\u2019ll stop smoking\u201d and \u201cI\u2019ll hit the gym regularly\u201d\u00a0a new one:\u00a0\u201cI\u2019ll look at\u00a0statistics\u00a0carefully\u201d.\u00a0You can start with these five simple tips.\u00a0 Reported averages might be meaningless\u00a0 An arithmetic mean (sum of all values divided [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1026,"featured_media":4180,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[272456,138,169,127784,299283,3203],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-272456","category-mathematics","category-outreach","category-practical-advice","category-sci-comm","category-science"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Statistical resolutions - Student blogs - Imperial College London<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Statistical resolutions - Student blogs - Imperial College London\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Can you believe the time for New Year\u2019s resolutions has come again? Maybe this year\u00a0you can add\u00a0to the traditional \u201cI\u2019ll eat healthily\u201d, \u201cI\u2019ll stop smoking\u201d and \u201cI\u2019ll hit the gym regularly\u201d\u00a0a new one:\u00a0\u201cI\u2019ll look at\u00a0statistics\u00a0carefully\u201d.\u00a0You can start with these five simple tips.\u00a0 Reported averages might be meaningless\u00a0 An arithmetic mean (sum of all values divided [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Student blogs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-01-02T11:15:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/files\/2019\/01\/silhouette-3689420_1280.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Paula Rowi\u0144ska\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Paula Rowi\u0144ska\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Paula Rowi\u0144ska\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/#\/schema\/person\/46b27f5747304d1a1b046cf8266d75c2\"},\"headline\":\"Statistical resolutions\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-02T11:15:22+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/\"},\"wordCount\":735,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/files\/2019\/01\/silhouette-3689420_1280.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"2019\",\"Mathematics\",\"Outreach\",\"Practical Advice\",\"Sci Comm\",\"Science\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/\",\"name\":\"Statistical resolutions - 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My name is Paula and I'm passionate about our amazing world - including the world of maths. This is why I decided to do a PhD in applied mathematics. I'm lucky to be a part of a team of scientists who use their knowledge to prevent climate change. When I'm not doing my research, I write (this is my third blog!), cycle, sing and dance, play piano, learn languages and refuse to beat the addiction to theatres. 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Maybe this year\u00a0you can add\u00a0to the traditional \u201cI\u2019ll eat healthily\u201d, \u201cI\u2019ll stop smoking\u201d and \u201cI\u2019ll hit the gym regularly\u201d\u00a0a new one:\u00a0\u201cI\u2019ll look at\u00a0statistics\u00a0carefully\u201d.\u00a0You can start with these five simple tips.\u00a0 Reported averages might be meaningless\u00a0 An arithmetic mean (sum of all values divided [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/","og_site_name":"Student blogs","article_published_time":"2019-01-02T11:15:22+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":640,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/files\/2019\/01\/silhouette-3689420_1280.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Paula Rowi\u0144ska","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Paula Rowi\u0144ska","Estimated reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/"},"author":{"name":"Paula Rowi\u0144ska","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/#\/schema\/person\/46b27f5747304d1a1b046cf8266d75c2"},"headline":"Statistical resolutions","datePublished":"2019-01-02T11:15:22+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/"},"wordCount":735,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/files\/2019\/01\/silhouette-3689420_1280.png","articleSection":["2019","Mathematics","Outreach","Practical Advice","Sci Comm","Science"],"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/","url":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/student-blogs\/2019\/01\/02\/statistical-resolutions\/","name":"Statistical resolutions - 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