{"id":7232,"date":"2023-06-23T16:32:23","date_gmt":"2023-06-23T15:32:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/sustainable-gas-institute\/?p=7232"},"modified":"2023-06-29T15:55:58","modified_gmt":"2023-06-29T14:55:58","slug":"mathane-origins-part-iii-the-relentless-rise-of-methane","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/sustainable-gas-institute\/2023\/06\/23\/mathane-origins-part-iii-the-relentless-rise-of-methane\/","title":{"rendered":"Methane origins part III – the Relentless Rise of Methane"},"content":{"rendered":"

In Methane origins part two<\/a> we pondered the methane plateau of the early noughties.\u00a0 For part three the Sustinable gas Institute’s Dr Semra Bakkaloglu<\/a> looks at what has happened since, and where the science points in figuring out the relentless rise in the concentration of methane in Earth\u2019s atmosphere.<\/p>\n

\n

Methane concentrations are a two-way street. We know that the rise in the mole fraction (the measure of concentration in the atmosphere) for the gas can be attributed to two things; changes in the relative amounts and totals of emissions from biogenic, thermogenic, and pyrogenic sources, or its destruction through natural methane sinks \u2013 Nisbet et al., 2019<\/a>.<\/h3>\n

So, which is it \u2013 is more being produced? Or is less being destroyed? It is an important question, because \u2013 as Nisbet et al also pointed out – the accelerating increase in concentration is enough to push us past Paris Agreement target limits.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, that\u2019s not easy to answer – the Methane cycle (fig 1) is a complex thing.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Fig 1: The methane cycle. Credit: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, ECMWF.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

So \u2013 remember part I<\/a>? If you don’t, here’s a quick refresher on isotopic \u03b4 13<\/sup>C \u2013 CH4<\/sub> source signatures. \u00a0To better understand the methane origins – \u00a0the \u03b4 13<\/sup>C \u2013 CH4<\/sub> are defined as:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u03b4 values are reported in per mille (\u2030), relative to the international standard materials Vienna Peedee Belemnite (VPDB) for \u03b413<\/sup>C.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s investigate the research to see what scientists say about the increase in atmospheric methane concentration after 2006.<\/p>\n

A 2022 study by Drinkwater et al<\/a> examined satellite remote sensing data which suggested both – evidence of lighter atmospheric methane isotopic signature changes (which tend to indicate increasing natural emissions), coupled with a decrease in destructive rate via Hydroxyl radical (OH) sink mechanisms.<\/p>\n

But in 2021 Zhang et al<\/a> argue that anthropogenic emissions are responsible for atmospheric methane increases as current process-based wetland CH4<\/sub> models cannot explain the fact that a significant rise in emissions from natural wetlands caused a decrease in atmospheric \u03b4 13<\/sup>C – CH4<\/sub> values.<\/p>\n

If we are considering increasing anthropogenic emissions from biogenic sources, it is important to focus on livestock emissions since they are the largest source in the global methane budget. Research by Chang et al in 2019<\/a>\u00a0suggests that ruminants\u2019 enteric emissions played a larger role in the observed decline of \u03b413<\/sup>C in atmospheric methane from 2000 to 2012.<\/p>\n

In my own paper<\/a>, we examined waste source signatures and reported that the isotopic signature of CH4<\/sub> \u2013 sourced from biogas plants and active landfills \u2013 exhibits more significant reductions in the 13<\/sup>C isotope compared to CH4<\/sub> obtained from other waste sources.<\/p>\n

We also know that governments are adopting the practice of diverting biowaste away from landfills towards anaerobic digestions<\/a>, which is a beneficial strategy for mitigating methane emissions. These might explain the rise in CH4<\/sub> mole fractions with a lighter isotopic signature.<\/p>\n

So, what about the contribution of oil and gas emissions to increasing atmospheric methane levels? The methane isotopic signature being lighter suggests a decrease in oil and gas emissions. But recent International Energy Agency (IEA) data<\/a> contradicts that. Methane emissions from the oil and gas sector have been increasing \u2013 so either the industry is getting very good at tackling supply-chain emissions, or we need to question whether we are missing something and investigate how the isotopic signature of methane from the oil and gas sector has been evolving.<\/p>\n

A study in 2022 by Menoud et al<\/a> supports that theory, reporting that the fossil fuel source signature could have been more depleted (more negative, lighter) in recent years.<\/p>\n

Overall, it is evident that a great number of factors are responsible for the increase in atmospheric CH4<\/sub> with a lighter isotopic signature. It is crucial to note that the atmospheric chemistry of methane is highly complex, and the main source of uncertainty when using \u03b413<\/sup>C data to distinguish between different methane sources, especially in methane sink mechanisms, as observed by Basu et al in 2022.<\/a><\/p>\n

It is not going to be a clear-cut answer, but a plausible explanation includes the rise in emissions from agriculture and waste as well as fossil fuels with possible contributions from wetlands and a weakening sink. But we need significantly more observations to completely understand the global CH4<\/sub> budget and key atmospheric processes in order to reduce the uncertainties associated with \u03b413C data in methane source differentiation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In Methane origins part two we pondered the methane plateau of the early noughties.\u00a0 For part three the Sustinable gas Institute’s Dr Semra Bakkaloglu looks at what has happened since, and where the science points in figuring out the relentless rise in the concentration of methane in Earth\u2019s atmosphere. Methane concentrations are a two-way street. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1649,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[305212,305213],"tags":[305214,305217,305215,305183,305216],"class_list":["post-7232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-carbon-isotopes","category-the-methane-cycle","tag-budget","tag-causes","tag-cycle","tag-methane","tag-sink"],"yoast_head":"\nMethane origins part III - the Relentless Rise of Methane - Sustainable Gas Institute Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/sustainable-gas-institute\/2023\/06\/23\/mathane-origins-part-iii-the-relentless-rise-of-methane\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Methane origins part III - the Relentless Rise of Methane - Sustainable Gas Institute Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In Methane origins part two we pondered the methane plateau of the early noughties.\u00a0 For part three the Sustinable gas Institute’s Dr Semra Bakkaloglu looks at what has happened since, and where the science points in figuring out the relentless rise in the concentration of methane in Earth\u2019s atmosphere. 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