{"id":973,"date":"2015-12-07T13:50:43","date_gmt":"2015-12-07T13:50:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sustainablegasinstitute.org\/?p=973"},"modified":"2015-12-07T13:50:43","modified_gmt":"2015-12-07T13:50:43","slug":"blog-building-better-models-in-potsdam-in-the-run-up-to-cop-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/sustainable-gas-institute\/2015\/12\/07\/blog-building-better-models-in-potsdam-in-the-run-up-to-cop-21\/","title":{"rendered":"BLOG: Building better energy systems models in the run up to COP-21"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\t\tDr Daniel Crow<\/a> is a Research Associate at the Sustainable Gas Institute. Daniel’s research is focussed on the mathematical treatment of whole systems approaches to energy modelling.<\/em><\/p>\n

The good and the great of the international Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM)<\/em> community assembled in Potsdam in November for the 8th annual meeting of the IAM consortium<\/a>.\u00a0 I\u2019m used to attending conferences in slightly off-the-beaten-track places (due, perhaps, to a supposition that relative isolation leads to fewer distractions and a more focused delegation), and this one proved no except\"2617353101_0986a1be9e_o\"<\/a>ion.\u00a0 Perched on the edge of the Spree<\/em>, in deep forest, our conference hotel was accessible only by foot along an empty track lit by arching, lonely sodium lamps.\u00a0 A wild boar squealed at me on the first night.\u00a0 It all looked a bit DDR<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Academic matters, however, felt decidedly 21st Century.\u00a0 Main themes included a review of the state-of-the-art in IAM and an evaluation of the potential contributions that Integrated Assessment Models<\/em> could make in the future.\u00a0 Such models typically integrate the knowledge and methods of different academic disciplines (such as Engineering, Physics and Computer Science) to study complex problems at the nexus of the social, economic, environmental and political sciences, such as Climate Change.<\/p>\n

\"Einsteinturm_7443\"<\/a>
Einstein’s Tower<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There was much talk of the effictiveness, or not, of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions<\/em> (INDCs) as a sensible route to implement climate action.\u00a0 Miles Perry (European Commission) pointed out the need for a more \u201ccross-border\u201d approach to emissions targets and, in the run-up to the United Nations COP-21 meeting in Paris, expressed the Commission\u2019s desire to \u201cdeliver a robust international agreement\u201d and set \u201cfair and ambitious targets for all countries based on evolving global economic and national circumstances\u201d.<\/p>\n

Roberto Schaeffer (COPPE<\/a>) questioned the \u201cwatered-down\u201d tone of the EU\u2019s statement, as well as the continuing focus on mitigation rather than adaptation and resilience.\u00a0 Schaeffer also pointed out that IAMs typically characterise climate mitigation in terms of costs above a business-as-usual<\/em> scenario, misleadingly failing to include the (potentially much greater) costs of the fall-out from Climate Change: the costs of doing nothing.\u00a0 Perhaps we should all be including an explicit \u201cclimate cost\u201d in our objective functions.<\/p>\n

The most interesting talks for me were those on uncertainty and the use of IAM projections. James Price (UCL) described a way to explore different future energy scenarios by \"IAMs_draw_smaller-1024x730\"<\/a>relaxing the requirement that the model (in this case UCL-TIAM<\/a><\/em>) minimise the total cost.\u00a0 Most normative<\/em> models calculate the cheapest way in which a climate constraint (such as a less-than-2\u00b0C rise by the year 2100) could be achieved.\u00a0 They show us \u201cidealised\u201d transition pathways that are rarely followed in messy reality.\u00a0 Price\u2019s talk explained how to build up a more realistic picture of future energy systems by exploring \u201cmaximally different\u201d scenarios, each of which keeps the total cost low without formally minimising it.<\/p>\n

Such \u201cwiggle-room\u201d might be a way to capture the uncertainties associated with brute optimization.\u00a0 Although the model we are developing at Sustainable Gas Institute (SGI), MUSE, does not rely on minimising system costs, we might yet pursue some of these ideas as a way to improve the plausibility and robustness of MUSE outputs.<\/p>\n

\"6a00e5500b4a64883301b7c7d850c5970b\"<\/a>I was struck also by Evelina Trutnevyte\u2019s (ETH) talk on the \u201cimpossible mission of embracing parametric and structural uncertainties\u201d. Trutnevyte retro-modelled the UK power system transition between 1990 and 2010 using the bottom-up D-Expanse<\/a><\/em> model and compared her results with what actually happened.\u00a0 Total system costs were around 17% higher than those corresponding to the optimal transition pathway, leading to significantly different transition implications for technology deployment.\u00a0 With a front-row perspective on all the myriad uncertainties that go into an Energy Systems Model, I found myself thinking that missing the mark by only 17% was actually rather impressive.<\/p>\n

The meeting ended with a discussion on future perspectives and opportunities for Integrated Assement Modelling<\/em>.\u00a0 As the political debate involving \u201cwho?\u201d, \u201cwhat?\u201d and \u201cwhen?\u201d type questions reaches its climax at COP-21 in Paris, it seems evident that IAMs and Energy Systems Models will play an increasingly influential role in providing a more objective rationale behind internationally agreed actions on mitigation and adaptation.<\/p>\n

Our models are emphatically not crystal balls to gaze into the future, but faster computers, more data and better methods should give us more and more confidence in the scenarios they produce, and allow us to quantify the uncertainty inherent in those scenarios.<\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

To find out more about the energy systems model, Daniel and the SGI team are developing, please contact us at SGI@imperial.ac.uk<\/a>.<\/strong>\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr Daniel Crow is a Research Associate at the Sustainable Gas Institute. Daniel’s research is focussed on the mathematical treatment of whole systems approaches to energy modelling. The good and the great of the international Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community assembled in Potsdam in November for the 8th annual meeting of the IAM consortium.\u00a0 I\u2019m […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":901,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[117,305182,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-energy-modelling","category-events"],"yoast_head":"\nBLOG: Building better energy systems models in the run up to COP-21 - Sustainable Gas Institute Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.imperial.ac.uk\/sustainable-gas-institute\/2015\/12\/07\/blog-building-better-models-in-potsdam-in-the-run-up-to-cop-21\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BLOG: Building better energy systems models in the run up to COP-21 - Sustainable Gas Institute Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dr Daniel Crow is a Research Associate at the Sustainable Gas Institute. 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