A post by Helen Greenhough, PhD Research Student, Imperial College, Dept of Computing
As an analyst in the defense sector, the adage of threat = capability x intent was widely accepted. But where did it come from?
In the course of my research I was pleased to come across what appears to be the original source of this equation in J. David Singer’s 1958 paper ‘Threat Perception and Armament-Tension Dilemma’ and was originally: ‘Threat-Perception = Estimated Capability x Estimated Intent’ [p94, Singer, J. 1958]. This quasi-formula posits that the perception of a threat can be reduced to zero by either reducing military capability or military intent.
I’ve just returned from the Cyber Security Show 2016, held 8-9 March 2016 at the Business Design Centre, Islington. This incorporated an exhibition and conference, one of the major annual cyber security conferences in the UK, for which I was Chairman for the two days.
It is a particularly interesting time in the world of Cyber Security. Just a month ago, President Obama launched the U.S. Cybersecurity National Action Plan. The measures announced include the creation of a Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity, a $3.1bn Information Technology Modernization Fund, a new National Cybersecurity Awareness Campaign to empower Americans to better secure their online accounts, and a $19bn investment in cyber during the 2017 Fiscal year.