Blog posts

Why foreign travel rules are important during the Covid-19 pandemic

The rapid spread of the delta variant of SARS-Co-V-2 ( coronavirus) in the UK in recent weeks shows the importance of foreign travel rules, such as on testing, immunisation and quarantine, to limit the import of Covid-19. Countries need to look at their own situation and put in place the most appropriate rules for them. This will including rules on Covid-19 testing for inbound and outbound travellers, and when and for how long travellers should quarantine; as well as guidance on whether travellers who are fully immunised can be exempted from some of these rules.

Holidays in foreign destinations carry risks. Settings such as restaurants, bars, night clubs and indoor concert venues have all been linked to large outbreaks of Covid-19. We all need to do our part to reduce these risks when we travel by following the local rules on social distancing and on the use of other preventive measure such as wearing face masks; and ensuring we get tested if we have symptoms of Covid-19 or have been caught up in a Covid-19 outbreak. The delta variant of the coronavirus has proven to be much more infectious than previous variants, and it is very likely that it will spread rapidly across Europe in the summer months, putting travellers at risk of infection.

By following the Covid-19 rules in the UK and in the countries we visit, we can help protect ourselves and others from the risk of infection, and limit the international spread of the delta variant and any other new variants of the coronavirus that may emerge in the future.

Questions and answers about Covid-19 vaccination in children

Countries globally are considering the implementation of Covid-19 vaccination programmes for children. In this article for the Daily Mirror, Matt Roper and I answer some of the common questions from parents about Covid-19 vaccination for children. 

I’m worried about vaccinating my child – how safe is it?

Clinical trials of Covid-19 vaccines in children aged 12-15 years in the UK and USA confirm that the vaccines are very safe. The rate of side effects in children in these studies was similar to that seen in young adults. As in young adults, most side effects were mild to moderate, such as a sore arm or tiredness.

Will children need two jabs like adults?

Children will need two doses of vaccine because this provides much better protection against serious illness than one dose of vaccine.

How likely is it they will suffer from side effects?

The most common side effects in children aged 12 to 15 years of age are pain at the injection site (> 90%), tiredness and headache (> 70%), muscle pains and chills (> 40%), joint pains and a high temperature (> 20%).

Is there anything I can do to offset any side effects?

Following the vaccination, paracetamol can help provide some relief from side effects such as muscle pain and headache. The side effects are generally transient and will resolve within a few days.

We’ve been told Covid doesn’t affect children as severely as adults, so why do we need to vaccinate them?

Although hospitalisation and death are rare in children following a Covid-19 infection, children can still sometimes have a prolonged illness and can also develop complications such as Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome or other types of “Long-Covid”. Vaccination of children also helps to protect older members of the family, such as parents and grandparents, and teachers.

Is Long Covid a concern in relation to children, and will the vaccine help there?

Long Covid can occur in children. At present, we don’t yet know if vaccination will protect against Long Covid but we hope that if vaccines reduce the risk of symptomatic infection and serious illness, they will also reduce the risk of the long-term complications of Covid-19.

Will they need regular boosters later on?

Because the virus that causes Covid-19 is continually mutating, it is likely that booster doses of vaccine will be needed for both adults and children. For protection against current strains, it is possible that immunity may gradually weaken over time and this would be another reason for providing booster doses.

If they don’t get their jab, do we think they might be exposed to more risky variants in the future?

The vaccines do protect against serious illness even for the newer, more risker variants such as the delta variant. Children who are not vaccinated will be at higher risk of a serious illness if they are exposed to a new variant of the coronavirus in the future.

Extending the duration of Covid-19 control measures in England

There will be a lot of disappointment about the 4-week delay to the relaxation of Covid-19 control measures in England until 19 July that was announced today by the Prime Minister. But it is the right decision. A delay of a few weeks allows more people to be fully vaccinated with two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine. The vaccination programme in the UK is progressing well; with 79% of adults in the UK having received one dose of a vaccine and with 57% who have received two doses. But this still leaves many adults unvaccinated, including some people in the 50+ age groups who are at highest risk of serious illness, hospitalisation and death.

The delta variant in circulation in the UK appears to be more infectious and more likely to result in an illness severe enough to require hospitalisation than other strains of SARS-CoV-2; and now accounts for the vast majority of Covid-19 infections. One dose of a Covid-19 vaccine is less effective in preventing symptomatic infection from the delta strain than other variants (e.g. 33% protection after one dose for the delta variant v. 88% for alpha variant based on data from Public Health England). Two doses still provides good protection (81% protection against the delta variant v. 88% protection against the alpha variant for symptomatic infection, with even greater protection against hospitalisation), which is why it is essential to increase the number of fully immunised people before relaxing control measures. Delaying the relaxation of lockdown measures allows time for the NHS to proceed further with its vaccination programme.

We have seen around a 50% increase the in the number of cases of Covid-19 in the UK in the past week. The positive news is that hospital admissions, although increasing, are at a low level; and that deaths have changed little, remaining at a very low level compared to January 2021. This suggests that vaccines are protecting against more serious illness and confirms the need for eligible people at obtain their Covid-19 vaccination as soon as possible.

In the longer term, a high level of vaccination in the UK population offers the best route to a more normal society and an end to Covid-19 restrictions. This requires giving the NHS – in particular, general practices and pharmacies – the support they need to deliver vaccinations. If possible, the government also needs to increase the supply of vaccines; particularly the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as these are the ones used in younger people who now comprise the majority of the unvaccinated adults in the UK. It’s also essential to address “vaccine hesitancy” to ensure that vulnerable, older people who have not yet attended for their vaccination appointments do get vaccinated to protect themselves and others. These actions will allow the NHS to meet the government’s updated target of offering all adults a Covid-19 vaccine by 15 July, as well as increasing the number of people who have received two doses of vaccine.

Building a sustainable infrastructure for Covid-19 vaccination

By mid-June 2021, the UK had administered over 70 million doses of covid-19 vaccines; with the majority (estimated around 75%) delivered by primary care-led vaccination sites. Since the start of the vaccine programme in December 2020, the UK has offered a variety of locations for covid-19 vaccination; GP led sites, mass vaccine sites, community pharmacies, and hospitals. The rollout of covid-19 vaccination is a major and much needed success for the NHS, and there are many positive lessons to be learned and taken forwards. However, we must not be complacent. We are still in the midst of a global pandemic, with covid-19 rife in many countries; and with new, more infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2 continually emerging. It is essential for the UK to maintain its vaccination momentum, as well as consider extending the vaccination programme to older children; and being prepared to offer booster doses to adults if these are required to maintain immunity. We must also focus on vaccine hesitancy, which is a major global health risk in its own right.

General practices in the UK are very experienced at mass vaccination programmes; being largely responsible for administering seasonal flu vaccines with support from community pharmacy sites. In 2020, the cohorts offered flu vaccines were extended to include household members of high risk patients, and all people aged 50-64. The same extended groups will be targeted for a flu vaccine next winter. General practices are embedded in their communities, are local and trusted, have health compliant regulated premises, rigorous cold storage systems, resuscitation equipment on site, hold full electronic patient records, and have long standing knowledge of their patients. For all these reasons, when the covid-19 vaccines became available, it was primary care teams nationwide who were able to quickly step forward and deliver the majority of vaccinations.

The initial cohort for the covid vaccination programme—people aged 80 and over—were not easily reached by email or text messages, are sometimes not technically literate, and many needed phone calls to book their vaccination appointments. The amount of time and effort this took was considerable and it is a credit to overstretched primary care teams nationwide (with special praise for practice managers, receptionists, care co-ordinators, link workers, nurses, volunteers and other support staff) that our most vulnerable patients, including nursing home, housebound and clinically extremely vulnerable patients received their initial injections so quickly and efficiently.

As we moved to the “lower risk” cohorts, the range of vaccine sites quickly expanded, and without any consultation central recalls were sent out, resulting in many unnecessary queries, much confusion, and unnecessary travel for patients. The logistics around the storage and handling of the mRNA Pfizer BioNTech vaccine precluded the use of community pharmacy sites, but the Oxford AstraZeneca (like seasonal flu vaccine) has been widely administered in community sites. The more recent changes by the MHRA allowing up to 31 days storage in a vaccine fridge for the Pfizer vaccine has the potential to further expand the range of suitable sites for its use.

In England, GPs have been working in primary care networks (PCNs) since July 2019, representing groups of practices typically covering 30,000-50,000 patients. Primary care networks are ideally placed to offer population based health services including covid-19 vaccination. Some primary care networks have offered covid-19 vaccinations in house by reorganising their services, while others have worked with other primary care networks to use large sites such as sports centres, entertainment venues, and village halls. Many primary care networks have also offered “pop up clinics”—for example in homeless shelters, community centres, places of worship and hostels—with great success, to increase uptake in marginalised groups who are typically at higher risk of infection, serious illness, and complications from covid-19; and thereby help to reduce health inequalities.

There has been great commitment from both the existing primary care workforce and volunteers to deliver the covid-19 vaccination programme, with many retired staff coming back to help, primary care staff being redeployed, and volunteers acting in roles such as marshals, data entry clerks and car park wardens. In addition to all the administrative workload in booking appointments, there are huge numbers of queries from patients about their vaccines both before and after the event. This hidden work is also being carried out, unfunded, and largely unrecognised, by primary care teams. Each time there is a change in policy by the government or a health scare in the media, primary care teams are inundated with calls, and this workload and its importance in ensuring the continued high uptake of covid-19 vaccines needs to be recognised by the government.

The UK government has recently announced that they may offer a covid-19 booster in the Autumn 2021 and, with new variants emerging, this is likely to be a key health policy to protect the NHS over the winter. Hence, now is the right time to appraise the various options for vaccine delivery. Having a mixed range of sites able to offer mass vaccination in theory should speed up the process, but it has been clear throughout the vaccination programme that the limiting factor is actually vaccine supply, not capacity to vaccinate.

We recommend that NHS England publish data on the respective costs of delivering vaccines via primary care networks (general practice sites) versus mass vaccine centres. Any such calculations must include set up costs, running costs, and also explain where the clinical staff are coming from—knowing that staff shortages are already running at over 10% across the NHS. The work in dealing with queries from patients also needs to be factored into this evaluation—this is currently largely being directed at primary care teams, who are often left to deal with the most complex patients. We would also request an official breakdown of the percentage of vaccines given in each setting thus far, so that there is full transparency and also an appreciation for the huge efforts made by GP teams nationwide.

By using primary care sites for the vaccination programme, there is the potential to invest in and strengthen our infrastructure for local healthcare delivery, which will assist in the covid-19 NHS recovery plans, and leave a legacy for the future. By contrast, there is a risk that mass vaccine sites—like the Nightingale hospitals—will eventually be dismantled. Policy makers need to carefully evaluate the use of mass vaccine sites versus GP led sites, along with the desire of patients to receive their care closer to home and in a familiar setting. However, there must be adequate resources attached for this work, so that routine care and timely access to other primary care services is not compromised by delivering the covid-19 vaccination programme.

We know that many GP teams are at breaking point, and must be fully supported if they are expected to provide mass covid-19 vaccination in addition to their core work. Investment in primary care led vaccination sites, supported by local pharmacies, is likely to be the most cost-effective option for ongoing mass vaccination, as well as being the option that is preferred by most patients. It is essential therefore for the government and NHS managers to work with primary care teams, giving them the resources needed to put in place a sustainable, long-term infrastructure for vaccine delivery.

Simon Hodes, GP Partner, Watford, UK, Twitter @DrSimonHodes

Azeem Majeed, Professor of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK, Twitter @Azeem_Majeed

Competing Interests: None declared

This article was first published by BMJ Opinion.

Covid-19 vaccination hesitancy

The rollout of Covid-19 vaccination is well underway, with more than 700 million doses given worldwide as of April 2021. Vaccination is highly effective at reducing severe illness and death from Covid-19. Vaccines for Covid-19 are also safe, with extremely low risks of severe adverse events. A major threat to the impact of vaccination in preventing disease and death from Covid-19 is low uptake of vaccines. In article published in the British Medical Journal, we give on overview of vaccine hesitancy and some approaches that clinicians and policymakers can adopt at the individual and community levels to help people make informed decisions about Covid-19 vaccination.

The World Health Organization defines vaccine hesitancy as a “delay in acceptance or refusal of safe vaccines despite availability of vaccine services.” It is caused by complex, context specific factors that vary across time, place, and different vaccines, and is influenced by issues such as complacency, convenience, confidence, and sociodemographic contexts. Vaccine hesitancy may also be related to misinformation and conspiracy theories which are often spread online, including through social media. In addition, structural factors such as health inequalities, socioeconomic disadvantages, systemic racism, and barriers to access are key drivers of low confidence in vaccines and poor uptake. The term vaccine hesitancy, although widely used, may not adequately convey these wider determinants that influence decisions to delay or refuse vaccination.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1138

Measuring the impact of Covid-19: Why mortality alone is not enough

In an editorial published in the British Medical Journal, we discuss why we must look beyond mortality to the wider burden of pandemic related harms. Over the course of the covid-19 pandemic, daily releases of national statistics on cases and deaths have been widely reported and used to support interventions and judge the success or failure of control measures around the world. However, differences in rates of testing and in reporting of deaths have led to uncertainty about whether national headline figures on deaths are directly comparable. Excess mortality is an alternative metric, which gives a measure of the number of deaths above that expected during a given time period and thus accounts for additional deaths from any cause during the pandemic, irrespective of how covid-19 deaths are defined.

Measuring excess mortality alone offers only partial insights into the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the health of nations. If we are to truly understand and intervene to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, we must also look to quantify excess morbidity within and between nations. A focus on deaths alone gives only a partial picture of the impact of covid-19 on populations, particularly among younger people in whom death from covid-19 is rare. The importance of “long covid,” for example, has recently been highlighted, but the true burden of this condition has yet to be quantified, and policies are urgently needed to overcome its long term challenges.

The covid-19 pandemic has resulted in widespread disruption to health systems across the world. Diagnostic and treatment pathways for cancer and other time sensitive conditions have been disrupted, and the monitoring of long term conditions has often taken place through novel telemedicine platforms, if at all. By April 2021 more than 4.7 million people in England were waiting for hospital treatment, the highest number since records began. Such disruption is likely to lead to poorer health and earlier deaths in countries across the world for many years to come, particularly where covid-19 remains endemic and where health services are unable to function normally. Establishing where health systems have fallen behind, and characterising the true extent of unmet need, is a critical step towards reducing these ongoing harms.

There has been a huge toll of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in high income countries in 2020. However, its full impact may not be apparent for many years, particularly in lower income countries where factors such as poverty, lack of vaccines, weak health systems, and high population density place people at increased risk from covid-19 and related harm. In the UK, life expectancy in lower socioeconomic groups has fallen in recent years, an inequality likely to be exacerbated by the covid-19 pandemic, without concerted action.

Finally, although mortality is a useful metric, policy informed by deaths alone overlooks what may become a huge burden of long term morbidity resulting from covid-19. An urgent need exists to measure this excess morbidity, support people with long term complications of covid-19, and fund health systems globally to tackle the backlog of work resulting from the pandemic.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1239

Questions and answers about Covid-19 vaccination

1. I’d rather wait to see if vaccines really are safe. What’s wrong with that?

Covid-19 vaccines were tested extensively before they went into general use. The data from this research and subsequent data from their widespread use in the UK and other countries in many millions of people show that all the vaccines are very safe and that serious side effects are very rare. If you delay getting vaccinated, you are at risk of getting infected and also put at the risk the people you are in contact with.

 

2. Other people need a vaccine more than me. Isn’t it OK to let others have theirs first?

People are prioritised for vaccination based on factors such as age and medical history. When you receive your invitation to be vaccinated, you are being called for vaccination at the right time for you and are not disadvantaging anyone else.

 

3. Aren’t people dying from blood clots because of the vaccine?

Reports of serious blood clots are very rare, with typically only a few cases per million doses of vaccine administered.

 

4. I don’t trust the government, so why should I trust a vaccine they’re trying to get us to have?

Covid-19 vaccines were tested rigorously before they were used in the general population. No short cuts were taken in this testing. The safety of the vaccines continues to be assessed continually.

 

5. The odds of me dying from Covid are so low I’d rather take the risk of not being vaccinated.

Many people who survived a Covid-19 infection have been left with long-term complications such as heart and lung damage. Vaccination reduces the risks of you suffering a serious illness, and also helps protect more vulnerable people such as your elderly relatives and older work colleagues.

 

6. Haven’t lots of people died after having their first Covid shot?

Reports of people dying after their first Covid-19 vaccine are very rare. In most cases, death was due to natural causes and not linked to their vaccination.

 

7. I’m suffer from a lot of allergies, so I’m worried I’ll have a serious reaction to the jab too.

Many millions of people who suffer from allergies have safely received a Covid-19 vaccination.

 

8. Can the Covid vaccine affect fertility?

Covid-19 vaccines do not affect fertility.

 

9. BAME communities have been treated badly in the past by health authorities. Why should we trust them now?

BAME communities are at much higher risk of serious illness and death from Covid-19. Vaccines will protect them from these risks. BAME organisations and health professionals have advised the members of their communities to get vaccinated when they are invited, so it is not only health authorities that are recommending the vaccines.

 

10. Are vaccines halal?

Covid-19 vaccines have been confirmed to be halal and acceptable for use in Muslims by religious scholars across the world. No Muslim country has refused to use Covid-19 vaccines.

 

11. I’ve seen videos where doctors say vaccines are dangerous and even change your DNA. Why should I believe another doctor who says it is safe and not those who have concerns?

Vaccines are safe and do not change your DNA. Extensive research has confirmed the safety of the vaccines.

 

12. This vaccine was developed in record time. I’m worried they cut corners to get it out in such a rush.

Vaccines were developed and tested in record time because of advances in medical technology in recent years and because bureaucratic obstacles to setting up research trials were minimised. No corners were cut in the development and testing processes.

 

13. You might seem OK after having your vaccine, but who knows how it might affect your health in several years’ time?

We now have evidence from many millions of people that vaccines substantially reduce the risks of serious illness and death. Ongoing research has shown the vaccines are safe and highly effective. The risks from Covid-19 infection in contrast are immediate and serious.

 

14. I’ve already had Covid so I don’t think I need a vaccine. Won’t I already have immunity?

Natural immunity to Covid-19 can wear off and people can sometimes suffer a second infection. A vaccine boosts your immune response and gives you additional protection from infection.

 

15. I’ve heard that vaccines can cause autism. What’s the truth?

There is no link between vaccines and autism.

 

16. I don’t want the dangerous chemicals in vaccines like formaldehyde, mercury and aluminium getting in to my body.

Vaccines are extensively tested to prove that the chemicals in them are safe.

 

17. Wasn’t the Spanish Flu vaccine responsible for 50 million deaths?

The deaths from Spanish Flu were caused by a virus, not by a vaccine.

How is the Covid-19 lockdown impacting the mental health of parents of school-age children?

The Covid-19 pandemic has affected educational systems worldwide, leading to the near-total closures of educational institutions in the UK. As of 6 May 2020, schools were suspended in 177 countries affecting over 1.3 billion learners worldwide, and in many cases closures have resulted in the universal cancellation of examinations. UNICEF estimated that almost 4 months of education will be lost as a result of the first lockdown.

School closures have far-reaching economic and societal consequences, including the disruption of everyday behaviours and routines. In the UK, over 2 million workers have already lost their jobs, and although the long-term impact of the pandemic on education is not yet clear, the pre-existing attainment gap between the poorest and richest children7 may widen significantly as a result of COVID-19. Children and young people make up 21% of the population of England,10 and by the time they returned to school after the summer break, some would have been out of education for nearly 6 months.

In a paper published in the journal BMJ Open, we explored how the lockdown affected the mental health of parents of school-age children, and in particular to assess the impact of an extended period of school closures on feelings of social isolation and loneliness.

We collected data for 6 weeks during the first 100 days of lockdown in the UK and found that female gender, lower levels of physical activity, parenting a child with special needs, lower levels of education, unemployment, reduced access to technology, not having a dedicated space where the child can study and the disruption of the child’s sleep patterns during the lockdown are the main factors associated with a significantly higher odds of parents reporting feelings of loneliness.

We concluded that school closures and social distancing measures implemented during the first 100 days of the COVID-19 lockdown significantly impacted the daily routines of many people and influenced various aspects of government policy. Policy prescriptions and public health messaging should encourage the sustained adoption of good health-seeking self-care behaviours including increased levels of physical activity and the maintenance of good sleep hygiene practices to help prevent or reduce the risk of social isolation and loneliness, and this applies in particular where there is a single parent. Policymakers need to balance the impact of school closures on children and their families, and any future risk mitigation strategies should ideally not be a further disadvantage to the most vulnerable groups in society.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043397

Lancet Commission on the Future of the UK’s NHS

I would like to thank the Lancet for giving me the opportunity to contribute to their Commission on the Future of the NHS. I fully support the recommendation for a strong and sustained increase in NHS funding to address the current weaknesses in the NHS. For me, the most striking data in the Lancet Commission on the Future of the NHS was this figure, taken from Securing a sustainable and fit-for-purpose UK health and care workforce, showing the changes in the number of NHS GPs and consultants per 1,000 people between 2008-18. Note the decline in GP numbers compared to the increase in consultant numbers. Although we hear a lot from NHS managers and politicians about the need to shift the focus of the NHS to the community, staffing statistics do not support this. The reality is that NHS primary care funding and workload need to reflect staff levels, not meaningless rhetoric.

Figure: Numbers of GPs and hospital consultants across the UK per 1000 people, 2008–18

Assessing the long-term safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines

In an article published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, myself, Professor Marisa Papaluca and Dr Mariam Molokhia discuss how health systems can assess the long-term safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. Vaccines for COVID-19 were eagerly awaited, and their rapid development, testing, approval and implementation are a tremendous achievement by all: scientists, pharmaceutical companies, drugs regulators, politicians and healthcare professionals; and by the patients who have received them.

Because these vaccines are new, we lack long-term data on their safety and efficacy. In surveys of people who define themselves as ‘vaccine hesitant’, this lack of long-term data is one of the main reasons given for their beliefs. Hence, providing this information is a public health priority and could help reassure vaccine-hesitant people that receiving a COVID-19 vaccine is the right choice for them. Emerging data from the UK and elsewhere are confirming the benefits of COVID-19 vaccines and this is one of the factors that is leading to a reduction in vaccine hesitancy in the UK population.

As long-term data on the safety and efficacy build globally, these can address many of the concerns that vaccine-hesitant people have about COVID-19 vaccines, thereby creating a positive environment that encourages higher uptake of vaccination. These data will also guide national public health policies, such as how frequently to provide booster doses of vaccine and whether limits should be placed on the use of a specific vaccine.

Vaccination remains the best way to control the COVID-19 pandemic, and countries globally should work together to generate the information needed to provide long-term data on safety and outcomes. Because of the very rare nature of some side effects, this will require international collaboration so that data from countries can be pooled to allow more precise estimates of risk to be calculated. This will include using data from low- and middle-income countries once vaccination programmes are established there, as well as from marginalised groups in higher-income countries, to ensure that the data are fully representative of the global population.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768211013437