The future of the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK – the essential role for vaccination

Thanks to Covid-19 vaccination, we have seen a substantial weakening of the link between Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations / deaths in the UK. But we don’t yet know how well this protection from serious illness and death will persist in the longer-term. We are also seeing “vaccine fatigue” set in with many people not keen on booster vaccines.

For the UK, the future challenges will include determining how frequently and in what groups Covid-19 booster vaccines are needed; ensuring a high take-up of vaccinations in all eligible groups; and having vaccines that are updated when necessary to protect against new variants. We have already had one additional booster vaccination programme in the UK this year; which targeted people 75 and over, residents of care homes, and people who are immunocompromised. A larger booster programme is planned for later this year that will target a wider range of people, including NHS staff.

Although some people are very optimistic about the future because of the recent decline in the number of Covid-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK, this optimism does depend on maintaining high levels of Covid-19 immunity in the population. This won’t be easy and we will see some areas of the UK and some population groups with low take-up of booster vaccines. We therefore need to ensure that we have a strong vaccine delivery system in place that can work with local communities to ensure a high-take up of vaccination – particularly in the most clinically vulnerable groups at highest risk of serious illness and death.

Other Covid-19 control measures are also important and can be implemented when necessary, but ultimately it is vaccination that will allow UK society to function normally rather than these other measures.

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